The future of biodiversity is likely to undergo profound changes as a result of global changes induced by humans, hence there is a pressing need to assess the potential responses of species to global change. This response can be assessed by the use of species distribution models (SDMs; also named ecological niche modeling).

Currently, I teach these methods to master students at Sorbonne Universities and to PhD students at the Museum doctoral school. I provide recommendations to colleagues who are interested in applying these methods on their datasets and research questions. I am also very active in the reviewing research material on these methods.

Click on themes for more information. See also the virtual species section.

Climate change impacts on spiders

In 2013, I published the first evaluation of global change impacts on spiders. I developed this evaluation in the framework of a French conservation plan called the “SCAP” (Strategy for Creation of Protected Areas), which aims at protecting 2% of the French Territory by 2020.


Evolution of the predicted environmental suitability for Dolomedes plantarius between 2000 and 2080 according to IPCC scenario A1B.

  • Leroy B., Paschetta M., Canard A., Bakkenes M., Isaia M. & Ysnel F. 2013. First assessment of effects of environmental change on threatened spiders: potential impacts on Dolomedes plantarius (Clerck) and its conservation plans. Biological Conservation 161:155-163 [link]
  • Leroy B., Bellard C., Dubos N., Colliot A., Vasseur M., Courtial C., Bakkenes M., Canard A. & Ysnel F. 2014. Forecasted climate and land use changes, and protected areas: the contrasting case of spiders. Diversity and Distributions  20:686-697 [link]
Climate Change impacts on the Baie-de-Seine ecosystem

Since 2015, I participate in the “TROPHIK” project coordinated by Nathalie NIQUIL, which aims at estimating how cumulated impacts (climate change, fishing, offshore windfarms) will affect the Baie-de-Seine ecosystem. In this project, we developed a new approach to assess how climate change will impact all species of the Baie-de-Seine ecosystem.